Cliff Notes - Buy Buy Baby

December 2, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US Black Friday sales were $7.4 billion, driven by a 20% increase in online shopping. 
  • A perceived lull in geopolitical frictions has boosted risk assets.  Last week saw continued strong gains in US stock indices. We are on the watch for more signs that global manufacturing may be bottoming out, as well as signs that the drag on economic activity from the global protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing.
  • We see the dovish pivot by major central banks as having run its course for now. Monetary policy is no cure for the weaker growth and firmer inflation pressures that may result from sustained trade tensions.
  • We expect growth to stabilize and gradually pick up over the next 6 to 12 months thanks in part to loose financial conditions. 
  • Data releases this week in the U.S. should provide further insights on whether the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us. We will watch ISM PMIs to see if the manufacturing slowdown is bottoming out and U.S. non-farm payrolls for a sign that consumer momentum is maintained.
 

 

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Thankful

November 26, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • Global stocks retreated slightly last week on perceived stalled trade discussions between the US and China.  But are hitting all-time highs again here on Monday morning on news China will crack down on intellectual property theft – a core US demand.  
  • Stocks and bonds have seen significant upside performance so far in 2019 – with a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds posting some of its best performance in a decade.
  • Markets are advancing as we thought and published in our 4Q 2019 Outlook.  We are formulating our Investing Outlook for 2020 now, and look forward to sharing it with you in the next few weeks.
  • As we reflect on the relationships that we share with each of you – we wish to express our thankfulness for being able to serve as one of your trusted advisors – we’ve achieved a lot together – and we truly count you as friends and family.  To you and yours – we wish you a wonderful Thanksgiving.  

 Cliff Notes Thankful 11 25 19

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Washington Celebrates

November 22, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US stocks reached all-time ever highs last week.
  • Global central banks have delivered an unusual late-cycle dovish pivot this year – to extend an already-long economic expansion.
  • The Fed’s rate cut last week was the latest installment of this dovish push. Yet the Fed also signaled the potential completion of its late-cycle rate cuts, significantly raising the bar for additional easing.
  • For now investors are celebrating – the picture above is the Washington Nationals celebrating after checking their October brokerage statements.  The only celebrating in Washington to be found. 

 Cliff Notes Winning In Washington 11 04 2019

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Washington Celebrates

November 6, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US stocks reached all-time ever highs last week.
  • Global central banks have delivered an unusual late-cycle dovish pivot this year – to extend an already-long economic expansion.
  • The Fed’s rate cut last week was the latest installment of this dovish push. Yet the Fed also signaled the potential completion of its late-cycle rate cuts, significantly raising the bar for additional easing.
  • For now investors are celebrating – the picture above is the Washington Nationals celebrating after checking their October brokerage statements.  The only celebrating in Washington to be found. 

 Cliff Notes Winning In Washington 11 04 2019

 

 


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Cliff Notes - One Small Step for Women

October 29, 2019

In This Week's Update:

A détente in geopolitical frictions on two key fronts – U.S.-China tensions and Brexit – has boosted risk assets. Yet signs that the drag on economic activity from the global protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing have cast a shadow on the growth backdrop.

Major central banks have taken a dovish stance — the Federal Reserve has cut rates in line with market expectations, following the European Central Bank’s broad stimulus package.

The Fed will hold its penultimate monetary policy meeting for the year, with markets pricing in a rate cut. We expect the Fed will cut rates this week and possibly again next year, as insurance against a manufacturing slump leading to a broader economic slowdown.

US astronauts Christina Koch and Jessica Meir floated out of the International Space Station on Friday, October 18, in an operation that lasted over seven hours, it was a giant leap for womankind. The historic first spacewalk by an all-female team and coordinated mostly by a veteran woman astronaut, Stephanie Wilson, from the mission center goes beyond symbolism. It recognizes the contribution and ability of our female astronauts.  

Cliff Notes Thats One Small Step For Woman 10 28 2019


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