Cliff Notes - Complexifier

February 12, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • Jeff Bezos made up a new word to describe the status of his current affair of supposed international intrigue involving his cloak-n-dagger guys following the National Enquirer following him dabbling with Hollywood-types of the female persuasion.  
  • But he might of well have been describing capital markets, which have seen the S&P 500 stock market shoot up to its 200 day moving average, while bond yields are falling, following news of the crucial upcoming US-China trade talks, US Gov Shutdown 2.0 (or is it 17.0), and continued slowing global growth.  Complexifiers indeed!
  • So far in 2019 we’ve retraced more than half the decline of the late 2018 market decline,  with the best January in a decade, and Jeff is half as rich but still the richest – so it all ain’t half bad.  Things should be interesting in February.
Cliff Notes Complexifiers 2 11 2019

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Cliff Notes - Powell Puts Market Back on Track

February 4, 2019

In This Week's Update:

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell changed his tune last week and capitulated on his goal to raise US interest rates.   The surprise stand-down helped global stock markets continue to log strong gains thru the end of January.  While it was clear that future Fed Funds rate increases would be unlikely,  its less clear what spooked the Fed – a diminished U.S. economic outlook  or the December market meltdown.   Who knows, but for now it is clear that the Powell Put (lower interest rates) is now back on the table.  Risk on.

Cliff Notes Powell Put 2 04 2019

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Cliff Notes - Back to Work!

January 29, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US government employees reported back to work, after 35 days off, the longest government shut-down ever, as President Trump agreed on Friday to reopen the federal government for three weeks while negotiations continued over how to secure the nation’s southwestern border, backing down after a monthlong standoff failed to force Democrats to give him billions of dollars for his long-promised southern wall.
  • Global equities were mixed last week, as foreign shares continued to climb, but the US S&P500 drooped -0.21%, likely due to skittish investors waiting for key technology company earnings this week.
  •  This week we discuss emerging markets, specifically the much-hoped-for Chinese stimulus program –  and what we are looking for to invest in the emerging world.  

Cliff Notes Back To Work 1 28 2019

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Cliff Notes - World's Richest Woman

January 15, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • Equities extended the prior week’s positive momentum with a broad-based rally, as investors digested dovish Fed minutes, new fiscal stimulus in China and U.S.-China trade talks. The Fed’s December meeting minutes suggested many Fed officials could take a “patient” approach on rates and see the future path of hikes as “less clear.” Government bond yields rose modestly.
  • In fact, so far this year we have had a 3.6% price increase in the S&P500, which if you add a 2% dividend yield, would be an annual 5.6% return – not a bad start to the year.
  • MacKenzie Bezos is soon to be the richest woman in the world, following last week’s divorce announcement from her husband, CEO and largest owner of Amazon.  Without a prenup, she likely owns half the Bezos family’s  $137B Amazon fortune.    A 5.6% return on that half:  just $3.86 billion!

Cliff Notes Worlds Richest Woman

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Cliff Notes - Happy New Year!

January 8, 2019

In this weeks update:

We welcomed 2019 with  more big market moves up and down, but Friday’s big rally in stocks, which helped erase the worst two-day start to a year since 2000.  For investors who track seasonal patterns in markets, it also pointed major indexes in the right direction.

Not only is January typically a strong month for stocks—a phenomenon known as the January effect, which some analysts attribute to investors buying new shares after tax-loss selling in December—historical data suggests this month is poised to be even better than normal. That’s because it comes in the third year of the presidential election cycle, which some analysts say is typically the best for equities.

Full Article Here - Cliff Notes Happy New Year 1 7 2019

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