Cliff Notes - Off to The Races

January 16, 2020


In This Week's Update:

  • Markets are off to the races in 2020, continuing gains from last year on the strength of technology and industrial stocks.  
  • Risk assets responded positively to the quick de-escalation of recent US & Iran tensions, but they stand as one of the key geopolitical risks as we enter 2020.
  • We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six to 12 months, thanks in part to easy financial conditions.
  • Strategic competition between the U.S. and China, especially in tech, is likely to persist despite the signing of a limited “Phase 1” trade deal and the US removing the “currency manipulator” label. 

 Cliff Notes Off To The Races 01 13 2020

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Buy Buy Baby

December 2, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US Black Friday sales were $7.4 billion, driven by a 20% increase in online shopping. 
  • A perceived lull in geopolitical frictions has boosted risk assets.  Last week saw continued strong gains in US stock indices. We are on the watch for more signs that global manufacturing may be bottoming out, as well as signs that the drag on economic activity from the global protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing.
  • We see the dovish pivot by major central banks as having run its course for now. Monetary policy is no cure for the weaker growth and firmer inflation pressures that may result from sustained trade tensions.
  • We expect growth to stabilize and gradually pick up over the next 6 to 12 months thanks in part to loose financial conditions. 
  • Data releases this week in the U.S. should provide further insights on whether the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us. We will watch ISM PMIs to see if the manufacturing slowdown is bottoming out and U.S. non-farm payrolls for a sign that consumer momentum is maintained.
 

 

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Thankful

November 26, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • Global stocks retreated slightly last week on perceived stalled trade discussions between the US and China.  But are hitting all-time highs again here on Monday morning on news China will crack down on intellectual property theft – a core US demand.  
  • Stocks and bonds have seen significant upside performance so far in 2019 – with a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds posting some of its best performance in a decade.
  • Markets are advancing as we thought and published in our 4Q 2019 Outlook.  We are formulating our Investing Outlook for 2020 now, and look forward to sharing it with you in the next few weeks.
  • As we reflect on the relationships that we share with each of you – we wish to express our thankfulness for being able to serve as one of your trusted advisors – we’ve achieved a lot together – and we truly count you as friends and family.  To you and yours – we wish you a wonderful Thanksgiving.  

 Cliff Notes Thankful 11 25 19

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Washington Celebrates

November 22, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US stocks reached all-time ever highs last week.
  • Global central banks have delivered an unusual late-cycle dovish pivot this year – to extend an already-long economic expansion.
  • The Fed’s rate cut last week was the latest installment of this dovish push. Yet the Fed also signaled the potential completion of its late-cycle rate cuts, significantly raising the bar for additional easing.
  • For now investors are celebrating – the picture above is the Washington Nationals celebrating after checking their October brokerage statements.  The only celebrating in Washington to be found. 

 Cliff Notes Winning In Washington 11 04 2019

 

 


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Cliff Notes - Washington Celebrates

November 6, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US stocks reached all-time ever highs last week.
  • Global central banks have delivered an unusual late-cycle dovish pivot this year – to extend an already-long economic expansion.
  • The Fed’s rate cut last week was the latest installment of this dovish push. Yet the Fed also signaled the potential completion of its late-cycle rate cuts, significantly raising the bar for additional easing.
  • For now investors are celebrating – the picture above is the Washington Nationals celebrating after checking their October brokerage statements.  The only celebrating in Washington to be found. 

 Cliff Notes Winning In Washington 11 04 2019

 

 


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