In our 2021 Market Outlook we predicted stocks would rally 15%+ this year. We are solidly on track to realize those returns – as low interest rates, fiscal and monetary stimulus galore, infrastructure spending, and COVID vaccination rollouts spur a global economic reopening unseen for generations.
Risk assets have undoubtedly already discounted significant good news – and with global and earnings GROWTH expected to peak in the near-term, its timely to ask how to play the next stage of this unprecedented rally.
Today’s CliffNote follows our recent 2nd Quarter Outlook we recently mailed to you, and provides our further views on where we go from here – and how we are positioning client portfolios for continued growth and risk management.
Read our latest CliffNotes on How to Play the Next Stage of this Rally
Positive news on vaccine development and the formal start of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House drove global stocks to record highs. US Small Cap stocks will have their best month ever.
The expected nomination of former Fed Chair Janet Yellen as the Treasury Secretary also helped lift the mood. Yet the rally fizzled after disappointing jobs data pointed to a slowing of the restart as the virus surges around the U.S.
We still expect the cumulative economic hit from the Covid shock will be just a fraction of that seen in the wake of the global financial crisis.
The 4th quarter has started with a bang, sending the bears running for early hibernation.
Low interest rates forever, gigantic stimulus now or later, less-worse-than-feared earnings reports – and Apple 5G phones and Amazon Prime Day coming soon had the market up nearly 4% last week, and another 2% today.
Cyclicals and value stocks faded again, as the FAANG stocks continue their complete global domination- and we comment on the market’s current concentration.
Stimulus and Election risks remain, as we discuss below.
Last week saw more epic stock gains, on low interest rate policies from the US Fed and strong tech earnings. The S&P500 is now up 10% year to date.
Activity has started to normalize around the globe, albeit with renewed localized lockdowns to contain virus clusters. The unprecedented policy response has boosted risk assets. Europe has agreed on a historic recovery fund, but U.S. stimulus is now at risk of fading. Talks over the size and makeup of a new U.S. fiscal package have stalled as some key benefits expired and states face budget shortfalls. Our base case calls for a $2 trillion fiscal package that extends some federal stimulus measures through late-2020, but there is a risk no deal will materialize.
Another oft-mentioned risk is the US Presidential election. With both conventions now behind us the race has tightened according to RealClear polling, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Which got us wondering what happened to Kayne West’s much ballyhooed Presidential bid? At least the music on AirForce One would be better if he were elected – but would the tweets? Hmmm.
Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views – along with commentary about US Presidential Elections and the market.