Cliff Notes - Early Hibernation for the Bears

October 13, 2020

In This Week's Update - 

The 4th quarter has started with a bang, sending the bears running for early hibernation. 

Low interest rates forever, gigantic stimulus now or later, less-worse-than-feared earnings reports – and Apple 5G phones and Amazon Prime Day coming soon had the market up nearly 4% last week, and another 2% today. 

Cyclicals and value stocks faded again, as the FAANG stocks continue their complete global domination- and we comment on the market’s current concentration.

Stimulus and Election risks remain, as we discuss below.

Cliff Notes 10 12 2020 Early Hibernation

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Cliff Notes - Kanye for President

September 3, 2020

In This Week's Update:

Last week saw more epic stock gains, on low interest rate policies from the US Fed and strong tech earnings. The S&P500 is now up 10% year to date. 

Activity has started to normalize around the globe, albeit with renewed localized lockdowns to contain virus clusters. The unprecedented policy response has boosted risk assets. Europe has agreed on a historic recovery fund, but U.S. stimulus is now at risk of fading. Talks over the size and makeup of a new U.S. fiscal package have stalled as some key benefits expired and states face budget shortfalls. Our base case calls for a $2 trillion fiscal package that extends some federal stimulus measures through late-2020, but there is a risk no deal will materialize.

Another oft-mentioned risk is the US Presidential election.  With both conventions now behind us the race has tightened according to RealClear polling, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.  Which got us wondering what happened to Kayne West’s much ballyhooed Presidential bid?  At least the music on AirForce One would be better if he were elected – but would the tweets?  Hmmm.

Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views – along with commentary about US Presidential Elections and the market. 

Cliff Notes Kayne For President 8 31 20

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Cliff Notes - Good Night Little Bear

September 1, 2020

In This Week's Update:

Back in the dark ages before TikTok, one of my generation’s favorite books as youngsters was the warm and reassuring Richard Scarry’s “Good Night Little Bear”.  Little Bear always stalled, but his Dad patiently got him ready for a good night’s sleep.  What peaceful reading it was!

Investors have had a few sleepless nights this year too, but thanks to the Fed, the Govt, and medical and civilian action, investor see a brighter dawn, and have put the bear to sleep for now.   

The bear market of 2020 officially ended last week as the S&P500 recovered over 50% from the March 23rd low.  But plenty of worries abound, so we focus on investor fortitude this week.

Full Article - Cliff Notes Good Night Little Bear 8 24 20

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Cliff Notes - Good News Bad News

August 14, 2020

After last week’s job release I performed a little research.  First, I went to FoxNew’s website to see the fresh headline shout “Blow Out Jobs Numbers.”  Then I went to CNN’s site to see a more-dour “Employment STILL a Disaster.”   The truth was somewhere in the middle, but a clear indication of the virulently partisan world we live in today. 

Although US fiscal stimulus negotiations soured last week, equities continued their trajectory upward. Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, continued tech sector momentum, vaccine hopes, lower jobless claims, and a better-than-expected July jobs report helped the S&P 500 rise 2.49% higher last week. 

Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views. 

Cliff Notes Good News Bad News

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Cliff Notes - The Golden Apple

August 7, 2020

In This Week's Update:

Apple passed Saudi Arabia’s monstrous AramaCo last week to become the largest company on the planet at $1.85 trillion, following a massive quarterly report of nearly $60 billion in 2nd quarter revenue, earnings UP 18% and return on equity at stunning 70.7%.

US stock markets continue to rally and beat the world on the strength and concentration of the tech sector.  When Marc Andreeson wrote his now-famous “Why Software is Eating the World” technology was 18% of the S&P500 – now it is 33% on its way to a probable 40%.

Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views. 

Cliff Notes Golden Apple 8 03 20

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