Positive news on vaccine development and the formal start of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House drove global stocks to record highs. US Small Cap stocks will have their best month ever.
The expected nomination of former Fed Chair Janet Yellen as the Treasury Secretary also helped lift the mood. Yet the rally fizzled after disappointing jobs data pointed to a slowing of the restart as the virus surges around the U.S.
We still expect the cumulative economic hit from the Covid shock will be just a fraction of that seen in the wake of the global financial crisis.
The 4th quarter has started with a bang, sending the bears running for early hibernation.
Low interest rates forever, gigantic stimulus now or later, less-worse-than-feared earnings reports – and Apple 5G phones and Amazon Prime Day coming soon had the market up nearly 4% last week, and another 2% today.
Cyclicals and value stocks faded again, as the FAANG stocks continue their complete global domination- and we comment on the market’s current concentration.
Stimulus and Election risks remain, as we discuss below.
Last week saw more epic stock gains, on low interest rate policies from the US Fed and strong tech earnings. The S&P500 is now up 10% year to date.
Activity has started to normalize around the globe, albeit with renewed localized lockdowns to contain virus clusters. The unprecedented policy response has boosted risk assets. Europe has agreed on a historic recovery fund, but U.S. stimulus is now at risk of fading. Talks over the size and makeup of a new U.S. fiscal package have stalled as some key benefits expired and states face budget shortfalls. Our base case calls for a $2 trillion fiscal package that extends some federal stimulus measures through late-2020, but there is a risk no deal will materialize.
Another oft-mentioned risk is the US Presidential election. With both conventions now behind us the race has tightened according to RealClear polling, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Which got us wondering what happened to Kayne West’s much ballyhooed Presidential bid? At least the music on AirForce One would be better if he were elected – but would the tweets? Hmmm.
Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views – along with commentary about US Presidential Elections and the market.
Back in the dark ages before TikTok, one of my generation’s favorite books as youngsters was the warm and reassuring Richard Scarry’s “Good Night Little Bear”. Little Bear always stalled, but his Dad patiently got him ready for a good night’s sleep. What peaceful reading it was!
Investors have had a few sleepless nights this year too, but thanks to the Fed, the Govt, and medical and civilian action, investor see a brighter dawn, and have put the bear to sleep for now.
The bear market of 2020 officially ended last week as the S&P500 recovered over 50% from the March 23rd low. But plenty of worries abound, so we focus on investor fortitude this week.
After last week’s job release I performed a little research. First, I went to FoxNew’s website to see the fresh headline shout “Blow Out Jobs Numbers.” Then I went to CNN’s site to see a more-dour “Employment STILL a Disaster.” The truth was somewhere in the middle, but a clear indication of the virulently partisan world we live in today.
Although US fiscal stimulus negotiations soured last week, equities continued their trajectory upward. Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, continued tech sector momentum, vaccine hopes, lower jobless claims, and a better-than-expected July jobs report helped the S&P 500 rise 2.49% higher last week.
Read our full CliffNotes for market insights, charts, and views.