Cliff Notes - Buy Buy Baby

December 2, 2019

In This Week's Update:

  • US Black Friday sales were $7.4 billion, driven by a 20% increase in online shopping. 
  • A perceived lull in geopolitical frictions has boosted risk assets.  Last week saw continued strong gains in US stock indices. We are on the watch for more signs that global manufacturing may be bottoming out, as well as signs that the drag on economic activity from the global protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing.
  • We see the dovish pivot by major central banks as having run its course for now. Monetary policy is no cure for the weaker growth and firmer inflation pressures that may result from sustained trade tensions.
  • We expect growth to stabilize and gradually pick up over the next 6 to 12 months thanks in part to loose financial conditions. 
  • Data releases this week in the U.S. should provide further insights on whether the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us. We will watch ISM PMIs to see if the manufacturing slowdown is bottoming out and U.S. non-farm payrolls for a sign that consumer momentum is maintained.